![]() ![]() Let’s call this the “vote weight,” or simply the weight. To find the relative weight of a vote in each state, I divided each state’s electoral vote total by the total number of ballots cast in that state, and then divided again by the exact fraction of an Electoral College vote accorded the average American voter (roughly four millionths). It turns out that, on a national average, each individual’s vote counted for about four millionths of one full Electoral College vote. If we divide the total number of electoral votes – 538 – by the total number of voters, we can determine how much an individual vote counted toward an Electoral College vote. Roughly 136 million people voted in the 2016 presidential election. These unexpected results help us understand whose votes carry the least weight in U.S. ![]() ![]() Large states such as California, Texas and New York do comparatively well under this analysis it is the midsized states that fare the worst. I did this by using the number of ballots cast, rather than population, to compare the weight given to voters in each state by the Electoral College. That’s because the popular vote weighs each vote according to the total turnout, not the total population.Īs a professor who studies how mathematics can be used to model weather using computers, I was curious to make an apples-to-apples comparison between the Electoral College and the popular vote. It does not help us understand how the weights assigned to voters by the Electoral College differ from the equal weights given to all voters in a popular vote. Yet focusing on state population is not the most useful way to determine the relative weight accorded each state’s ballots. The electoral vote total for each state is determined by its population relative to other states, plus two more votes equal to its representation in the Senate. Distributing the electoral vote evenly among each state’s residents suggests that individual votes from Wyoming carry 3.6 times more influence, or weight, than those from California. For example,Īs the Washington Post noted shortly after the election, Wyoming has three electoral votes and a population of 586,107, while California has 55 electoral votes and 39,144,818 residents. Most people believe the Electoral College weighs ballots in states with large populations much less than those in small states. What are these weights, and how can we best compare them? But, as evidenced by Donald Trump’s victory, the Electoral College gives different weights to votes cast in different states. If the president were elected by popular vote, every voter’s ballot would have been given equal weight, or influence, over the outcome, and Hillary Clinton would have won. Federal Election Commission.In the days following the 2016 presidential election, many pundits and voters alike were stunned by the disparity between the popular vote, which went for Hillary Clinton, and the Electoral College, which favored Donald Trump. Source: "2000 Presidential Electoral and Popular Vote" (Excel 4.0). Bush, who served as the 43rd president of the United States (2001–2009) and as the 46th governor of Texas (1995–2000).ġ978 congressional election 1978 Texas's 19th congressional district election, Republican primary Partyġ978 Texas's 19th congressional district election, Republican primary runoff Partyġ978 Texas's 19th congressional district election Partyġ994 Texas gubernatorial election 1994 Texas gubernatorial election, Republican primary Partyġ994 Texas gubernatorial election Partyġ998 Texas gubernatorial election 1998 Texas gubernatorial election, Republican primary Partyġ998 Texas gubernatorial election PartyĢ000 United States presidential election Įlectoral college map of the 2000 United States presidential election Electoral results This is the electoral history of George W. ![]()
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